Future Viability
Highlights

Online markets and program distribution models are constantly changing, which in turn impacts traditional program distribution models. In light of these shifts, it is difficult to divide program distribution models into clear-cut categories. In this report, we examine nine program distribution models and whether they are likely to be viable in the future. There are no hard timelines for these assessments, only general trajectories.

Growth
Mature
Decline

Some program distribution models show clear growth, an indication they will likely play a more important role in the future. Mature models are currently facing declines but will likely continue to evolve and remain viable. Some models are in decline due to considerable challenges and are not likely to remain viable.

The following is a summary of the overall conclusions for the future viability of each model.

Read time: 2 min

The Audio Market


Online Audio


Future Viability: Growth

A growing consumer base.

While consumption and revenues are likely to grow, profitability is elusive. Future success in this market will likely be a function of size, where the largest services will have the most leverage with artists and labels.

Read time: 6 min

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Satellite Radio


Future Viability: Mature

A profitable niche service.

Satellite radio has a small-but-stable market that could grow if providers continue to maintain strong partnerships with auto manufacturers.

Read time: 5 min

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AM/FM Radio


Future Viability: Mature

Slow and steady.

AM/FM radio is likely to remain viable given its unique advertising offer and despite a continued but slight decline in audience.

Read time: 7 min

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Transactional Online Audio


Future Viability: Decline

Music ownership is in decline.

Listeners show a clear preference for subscribing to audio services instead of owning content.

Read time: 6 min

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Financial trends for audio models

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Source: CRTC estimates (CRTC data collection; Sirius XM publicly available financial statements; Ovum; MTM consumer data)

The Video Market


Online Video


Future Viability: Growth

Breaking conventional rules of TV.

A major, market-disrupting hit with viewers, thanks to user-friendly platforms, low pricing and global content with mega budgets.

Read time: 6 min

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User-Uploaded Video


Future Viability: Growth

Upload, share and grow the audience.

The consumer demand for short-form video is strong and growing.

Read time: 4 min

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Cable, Satellite and Fibre TV (BDU)


Future Viability: Mature

Making investments in new technology.

Investments in Internet-based distribution will help this model face new online competitors. Increased competition is likely to shrink the number of available discretionary TV channels.

Read time: 7 min

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Transactional Online Video


Future Viability: Mature

There is still a window for à la carte premium content.

The appeal of renting or buying video remains strong, but this model is slowing as the online video subscription model ramps up.

Read time: 3 min

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Conventional TV


Future Viability: Decline

Struggling to make ends meet.

Conventional TV still has the most popular shows, but advertising alone is no longer enough to keep this model viable.

Read time: 6 min

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Financial trends for video models

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Source: CRTC estimates (CRTC data collection; Ovum; MTM consumer data)